Primary '08 Mega-coverage: Super-charged Analysis of the Key Races on New Mexico's Big Day

It was a wild day in New Mexican politics yesterday, with hundreds of thousands of voters casting their ballots across the state in party primaries for positions from president to county clerk.

As the results continue to roll in (several counties, including the state’s two largest, Dona Ana and Bernalillo, reported difficulties and mistakes in getting ballots to the proper location to be counted), we keep a sharp eye on the developing coverage and offer our thoughts on how this action-packed Tuesday in New Mexican politics will effect the general contests set to be held in November. Saddle up, and follow closely, as we unpack yesterday’s developments.

Where Can I Get Results?

First off, let’s help you out. The latest official and unofficial results can be found by visiting the New Mexico Secretary of State’s website at: http://67.192.207.121/county0.htm

Democrats Have Edge in Turnout:

One development that stood out to me as I gave the results an initial review was that nearly 20,000 more Democrats hit the polls yesterday than did their GOP counterparts. This blog is non-partisan, adhering solely to the spirit and cause of progress and progressive candidates, regardless of their party affiliation. However, it would be silly to purport that the Democrats’ turnout edge yesterday does not bode well for the chances of progressive candidates come November.

Wilson Drops First Contest:

I was wrong. Despite a strong finish and the late, 11^th hour endorsement of New Mexican political godfather and outgoing GOP Senator, Pete Domenici, 1^st District Congresswoman Heather Wilson could not entirely close the gap between her and rival Steve Pearce, who scored a 2 point victory that was confirmed by the Associated Press around 2 a.m. this morning.

The 51-49% result to some extent confirms the theorem suggesting that more conservative voters dominate Republican primaries. However, Pearce, who has represented a stalwart conservative during his time representing New Mexico’s 2^nd district in Congress, will have to appeal to a wider range of voters in order to be competitive against Rep. Tom Udall, who scored an unopposed victory in yesterday’s Democratic Senate primary.

Put another way, Pearce will have to reach out and successfully court the more moderate Republicans who brought Wilson to the brink of scoring an upset primary victory. In a morning interview on KOAT Action 7 News, Udall was all smiles, declaring that he would defeat Pearce in the fall and that the aspect of the Republican primary battle that stood out most to him had been the bitter, divisive nature with which Pearce and Wilson had made their cases.

Teague Overcomes McCamley to Score Tight Victory in the 2^nd District:

Former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague was exuberant as early results had him defeating Democratic rival Bill McCamley by a wider than expected margin, which was, at one point, over 20 points. However, as the night rolled on, and returns came in from the Dona Ana County Commissioner’s stronghold in Las Cruces and surrounding areas, Teague’s lead began to evaporate and was in question until after midnight, when the AP projected a 4 point victory for the wealthy Hobbs businessman.

In the end, this race can and should be seen as a missed opportunity for McCamley. Negative, attack ads were good enough to get him close to an upset victory over his better-financed opponent, but a positive, issue-oriented effort could have pushed him over the top. Teague stayed on message, focusing on the issues most important to Democratic voters, such as health care, education, and the war in Iraq. In the final analysis, this consistent approach, coupled with McCamley’s negativity, that paid off to give Teague a hard-fought victory.

Tinsley Redeems Loss in ’02, Will Face Teague in General Election:

Squaring off against Harry Teague will be wealthy New Mexican restaurateur and failed 2002 2^nd District GOP candidate, Ed Tinsley. Tinsley solidly defeated a broad field of well-financed opponents, edging his closest competitors Monty Newman and Aubrey Dunn, Jr., by just over 10 points.

Let’s be frank: this race is winnable for the Democrats. Though the seat has been in Republican hands since 1980, when Joe Skeen won as a write-in candidate and began a Congressional career lasting more than 20 years, the stars seem to have aligned for the Democratic nominee Harry Teague to mount a serious challenge in ’08.

In the past three elections, Democratic candidates were badly under-funded and out organized by Republican Steve Pearce. Moreover, none of the candidates was bolstered by an inspiring candidate at the top of the ticket and had difficulty inspiring progressive and moderate Democrats alike (note-Democrats hold a registration edge in New Mexico’s 2^nd Congressional District) to support their cause. In 2008, this will change.

Not only is Democratic nominee Harry Teague independently wealthy and capable of injecting at least as much, if not more, of his own money into this race as his opponent, the former Lea County Commissioner grew up in Hobbs and has strong ties to the southeastern part of the state, which has traditionally given GOP 2^nd district candidates their edge in Congressional races. If Teague can neutralize Tinsley’s conservative base in the east and build a solid backing of Hispanic and progressive Democrats in places like Dona Ana and Grant Counties, then he will have a real chance to win in November and put the 2^nd district back in Democratic hands.

Lujan Wins by Large Margin, In Good Shape for General:

New Mexico Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan, who is the son of longtime New Mexico State House Speaker Ben Lujan, won his contentious primary race against wealthy Santa Fe real estate developer Don Wiviott, securing 52% of the vote to Wiviott’s 35.

The race had been marred by attack adds, as well as a nasty insinuation from lower-tier candidate, Benny Shendo, Jr., who misleadingly claimed in a forum that, first, Lujan is homosexual and, secondly, that he had failed to tell his family about his sexual orientation.

As some readers may know, I supported the seemingly progressive positions and vigorous grassroots outreach of the Shendo Campaign and went so far as to endorse it with a few weeks remaining in the race. However, after he made the hideous, two-sided blunder of advancing dishonest claims regarding Lujan’s sexual orientation and then trying to somehow siphon support from him by arguing that Lujan had hidden this from his parents, I became disgusted and quickly retracted my support for Shendo. Yesterday, I cast my ballot for Lujan, as did thousands of other Northern New Mexicans. He should have little trouble overcoming Republican opponent Daniel East, who scored an upset win over former Domenici staffer, Marco Gonzalez, in New Mexico's overwhelmingly Democratic 3rd district.

Heinrich, White to Square Off in 1^st District General Election:

As expected, former Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White decisively won their primary contests yesterday and will square off in November in what is regularly one of the country’s most hotly contested congressional districts.

Heinrich overcame a commendable challenge from both former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron and former Secretary of the Department of Health Michelle Lujan Grisham, garnering 43% of the vote to 24 and 23 points for Vigil-Giron and Lujan Grisham, respectively.

White’s primary was more lopsided, as he captured roughly 82% of the vote and trounced long-time State Senator Joe Carraro. GOP leaders at the national level eye New Mexico’s 1^st Congressional District as a ‘must-win’ and will pour hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars into the seat to ensure it stays in Republican hands.

Still, with the national political winds trending Democratic and Heinrich representing a young, change-oriented progressive, this may just be the election when Democrats finally capitalize on their voter registration advantage in the 1^st District and put the seat in their column for the first time ever. Moreover, with the campaign of Senator Barack Obama attracting millions of new voters across the country, Heinrich could benefit from the increased efficacy amongst progressive voters that Obama’s efforts will engender.

Seeing as how Rep. Heather Wilson defeated her opponent Patricia Madrid by a paltry 900 votes in the ’06 election, Heinrich need only run a smart, energetic campaign to put himself in contention for victory- Barack may be able to do the rest (stay tuned for a future blog featuring more in-depth coverage of Senator Obama’s victory in the Democratic presidential nomination contest, which he proclaimed last night in a speech from the Xcel Center in St. Paul, the home of the 2008 Republican National Convention).

Wrapping Up:

Obviously, New Mexico’s political developments were not the only ones on the minds of electorally oriented citizens across the country, yesterday. At a rally in St. Paul, Illinois Senator Barack Obama made history, as he took the stage at the same arena in which Republican presidential candidate John McCain will officially accept his party’s nomination in early September and told an audience of more than 17,000 that he had now accrued the necessary delegate support to become the Democratic Party’s nominee for president. His announcement was unprecedented, marking the first time a non-white male will head the ticket of a major party, and it signaled to millions of those across the U.S. that the country truly is ready to start breaking with the traditional boundaries of what is, and is not, possible in our country’s presidential politics.

However, more clearly, Obama’s triumph signals a clear desire for change amongst the national electorate. It is critical to note that, not only did the Illinois senator receive votes from millions of Democrats, he also received the backing of a significant swath of independent and even Republican voters. I experienced this while campaigning for the candidate in Iowa in early January, during which time I spoke with dozens of Republicans who were inspired and reengaged by Obama’s optimism and sincere desire to usher in a new, more progressive era in our country’s political narrative.

In the days, weeks, and months to come, an already battle-tested Obama will make his case to a broader voting audience. However, his message will remain the same: if you are tired of politics as usual; if you are tired of ‘no-can-do’ attitudes amongst lawmakers; and if you are tired of narrow, special interests controlling the priorities and decision making process in Washington, then the time has come to support a campaign that seeks, above all else, to place power back where it belongs: in the hands of the American people. The time has come to support Barack Obama

Thanks for stopping in; we’ll have more for you soon.