Election Day Has Arrived: Predictions and Thoughts

With less than twelve hours to go before polls open in one of the most anticipated New Mexican primary votes in, well, ever, I'd like to offer my predictions for results in some of tomorrow's state- and district-wide contests, as well as share thoughts on the direction in which I believe these contests will head as they approach the general election in November. So, strap in, and prepare for some pre-election pondering that will leave you well-prepared and fired up to rock your vote manana in this historic election!

District 3 Democrats:
Let's start up north. For all the money he's put into the race, wealthy Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott has captured little for himself of the one thing that could lead him to an upset victory over favored NM Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan on Election Day: an appealing campaign. Wiviott's sunk his money into attack ads and done little to build a compelling platform that appeals to, and relates with the breadth of New Mexico's broad 3rd District.

For his part, Lujan, who entered the race as the front-runner, has run a safe race and is well-positioned to follow his father into New Mexico political prominence.

Prediction: Lujan by 8.

District 2 Democrats: This one's shaped up to be quite a contest. While Dona Ana County Commissioner came off an impressive 12-point victory at the New Mexico Democrats' Pre-Primary Convention poised to be an electric, positive candidate ready to unite the formerly uninspired Democratic voters of Southern New Mexico, the young candidate has since slipped into a malaise, whose only relent has been negative mailers and, more recently, ripping into his primary candidate, former Lea County Commissioner and successful businessman, Harry Teague.

I'll admit it. When McCamley first entered the race, (which, it should be noted, came before Senator Domenici announced he'd resign at the end of 2008 a move that set off the very firestorm of political scrambling that opened up the Second District seat in the first place, with Representative Steve Pearce deciding to take a shot at New Mexico's open seat in the Upper Chamber) I felt excited. As a young progressive activist myself, I hope to make a positive impact on the Land Of Enchantment through a career in public service, perhaps of the elected variety. McCamley's bold decision to enter into the election and work to take his commitment to a better Southern New Mexico to the Federal level was a cause for celebration in my mind. I looked forward to the important issues he'd raise, as well as the impassioned and well-reasoned manner in which he'd raise them. I anticipated a positive, progress-oriented campaign that would connect with disgruntled, disaffected voters and return a 2nd District Dem. to the Congress for the first time in nearly 30 years.

However, the tail of the tape since the pre-primary convention has been something quite different. McCamley has come at Teague with one demonizing mailer after another, claiming the former oilman's ties to the industry, an obvious boogeyman of many progressive Dems., would leave him both unwilling and unable to stand up to wealthy petrol executives. More recently, McCamley released a T.V. spot in which he compares Teague's oil ties to those of Preisdent Bush in a suggestive manner, which more or less links the two.

Anyone who has read Teague's position papers on critical issues like education, health care, and immigration reform, as well as what Congress should and must do about the quagmire in Iraq, knows that McCamley's unfounded assaults are little more than hot air. In fact, Teague is right on the issues, calling for a vast overhauling of No Child Left Behind, changes in the health care system that enable all citizens to afford quality care, as well as a quick, intelligent, and dignified withdrawal from Iraq, so that we can bring the many brave young women and men from New Mexico, who've so valliantly risked their lives in order to carry out a disastrous executive policy, home to their families. If that's not as categorically different than President Bush as one can get, than I don't know what is.

Prediction: Teague by 10.

2nd District GOP: This one's gonna be fun. At the outset of the race, wealthy Eastern New Mexican rancher and restauranteur Ed Tinsley, who narrowly missed capturing the GOP nod at the resignation of long-time Republican Congressman Joe Skeen in 2002, looked to be the odds-on favorite to redeem his flawed finish six years ago and take over for Pearce.

However, a lackluster campaign and the aggressive efforts of not one, not two, not three, but four well-financed opponents has made this race all but comfortable for Tinsley. Recently, former Hobbs Mayor and realtor Monty Newman has surged from second to third place in the minds of most pundits, largely due to the hundreds of thousands of dollars he's received in T.V. spots at the expense of the National Association of Realtors, who have turned his decently, yet uncompetitively financed bid into one that stands a real chance of upsetting Tinsley manana.

Formerly second-running Aubrey Dunn, Jr. has, for all intents and purposed, gone away. His campaign and message is awkward. Despite having been a registered Dem. no more than seven months ago, he's come out as an appalingly hawkish immigration reformer and recently received the endorsement of the 'Minutemen', an equally appaling anti-immigration group, which is essentially a cohort of vigilantes who, in states from New Mexico to Virginia, monitor and do everything in their power to disrupt the activity of undocumented workers. Dunn stands little chance of winning tomorrow because people don't understand- we wonder if he does either.

Prediction: Expect Tinsley to eke this one out by a small, but solid margin. Tinsley by 6.

GOP Senate: I'm calling upset. Despite two recent polls suggesting the contrary, I expect Albuquerque Congresswoman Heather Wilson to close with gusto and pull out an unexpected victory in the GOP Senate Primary over 2nd District Rep. Steve Pearce.

As we blogged this weekend, Wilson's political mentor, Senator Pete Domenici, came with an 11th hour endorsement of her candidacy on Friday, despite having previously pledged to remain neutral in the race. Late, awkward, and clumsily done, Domenici's nod will yet have a significant impact on this race and, I think, give Wilson just enough of a bump to edge Pearce.

As a Democrat, I would probably rather see Pearce triumph, as his clumsy campaigning style and general inability to formulate effective policy stances would eventually catch up with him in the general campaign and sink his hopes of overcoming the well-financed, well-respected effort of Democratic hopeful Tom Udall. Still, as Tom crosses the state preaching the good gospel of progressive reform, we're happy to entertain challenges from any and all who dare.

Prediction: Wilson by 2.

More briefly, we've got Heinrich by 12 and White by 30 in District 1, respectively, and look forward to another thriller of a campaign in New Mexico's most competitive district.

Remember to get out and rock the vote tomorrow- only your voice has the power to create that progressive future of effecting social change for which we're all looking. Check back tomorrow for breaking election coverage, as we sort out the results from the Land Of Enchantment's many contests. Sleep tight, and happy voting!