Obama Visits Las Cruces for Memorial Day, Preview of Fierce Campaign to Win the Land Of Enchantment in November

Obama in Las Cruces:
Democratic presidential front-runner Barack Obama celebrated Memorial Day with a select audience of veterans in New Mexico's second largest city, Las Cruces, today. And what better day for him to visit our cherished Land Of Enchantment and begin laying the framework for what will no doubt be an all-out effort to win the state come November? Under a clear sky and with the stoic Organ Mountains peering over his shoulders in the background, Obama talked about the importance of devoting one's life to a cause bigger than one's self, or, more specifically, the American ideal that everyone, not only within our country, but around the world should have a real and meaningful opportunity to meet their full potential. He praised past soldiers for their service, applauded their families for the endless worry they endured in order to allow their loved ones to keep our country safe, and spoke of the uniting quality of striving for a better United States that connects military and non-military citizens alike.

Obama's speech (the video for which can be found by the following this link: http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGB74D) also initiated what will likely be a passionate, comprehensive effort to return New Mexico to the 'blue' column come November. It is no secret that New Mexico is being eyed by the Obama Campaign as a key component of the new 'Western calculus' that could supplant places like Ohio and Florida as the keys to retaking the White House. Not to understate the importance of those two states (Obama sees winning Ohio and Florida as both critical to, and attainable for, his campaign as it sets its sight on victory), but Western states like New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona have trended Democratic in recent years. Moreover, as this posting will show, their significant Hispanic populations, which recent opinion polls show are more Democratic than at any point in recent memory, lend themselves to an Obama victory later this fall, particularly if Obama selects Big Bill to round out his ticket as VP (or makes an early offer of Secretary of State).

A successful campaign for Obama in New Mexico would also be a boon to other state-wide candidates and could produce one of the most successful election years in the history of the state's Democratic Party. First and foremost, likely Democratic 2nd District Congressional candidate Harry Teague would be the direct beneficiary of a large-scale, concerted voter outreach initiative by the Obama campaign to court Hispanic voters. Teague will hold his own i the largely white oil country of Eastern New Mexico, but one of the most significant reasons why Dems. have had such a hard time wrestling this seat from Republicans over the last thirty years is that Democrats and, more recently, Hispanic Democrats in places like Dona Ana County and other southern areas have not come out in full to vote for the Democratic candidate. Obama's campaign could and, I believe, will change that and make victory much more probably for Harry Teague in November.

Martin Heinrich, in New Mexico's 1st District, would also benefit from the celebrity that an inspired Obama effort in the Land Of Enchantment would inspire. The 1st District is notoriously close in its congressional elections, with current Rep. Heather Wilson defeating Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid by less than 600 voters in 2006. The rock star candidacy of Barack Obama could get Democrats out in droves in this district, which already has more registered Dems. than Republicans. Moreover, if Obama's Campaign decides to focus on turning out Hispanic voters in places like Albuquerque's South Valley, Heinrich could find himself as the first Democratic Representative from the 1st District in the state's history.

Senate hopeful and current New Mexico Rep. Tom Udall will need little help in securing his place as New Mexico's newest member of the upper-chamber. Still, partnering with Obama in statewide tours would create a roaring political force that would also help lower-ticket candidates like Teague, Heinrich, and even folks running for mayor, state representative or senator, or even at the city-level. The bottom line is that Obama needs New Mexico, and, in many ways, New Mexico needs Obama. Today's posting sets out a comprehensive argument for why the Obama Campaign should initiate a large-scale voter outreach program amongst New Mexico's Hispanic voters. This demographic has not voted their weight in recent presidential elections, and, for that reason, has not had as substantial an impact as it could and should have in terms of deciding to which presidential candidate New Mexico's electoral votes would go.

It's off to the races on this important day in our national narrative, when we take time to reflect on and give thanks to those brave women and men in uniform who've risked their lives and wellbeing in order to protect us as citizens, but, more importantly, the 'American Ideal' that attracts so many millions from across the world to make this country their home and utilize its opportunity to create a happier, more secure life for them and their families. Today, we gave our thanks to those who've fought and died. May our many efforts do justice to the valiant service you so nobly provided.

Obama in New Mexico:

Hispanic Voter Outreach in the Land of Enchantment Critical to Victory

Introduction: Hispanics Critical to Obama Victory in New Mexico

According to Census data taken in 2006, Hispanics’ weight in New Mexico’s electorate is heavier than in any other state in the country. Hispanics make up 44% of the state’s general population and 37% of its electorate. However, based on historical trends, including their performance in the 2004 presidential election, Hispanics are only projected to constitute 27% of New Mexico’s electorate in the 2008 presidential election. Given the close razor-sharp margin by which President George W. Bush defeated Democratic challenger John Kerry in New Mexico in 2004, getting New Mexico Hispanics to vote at a level that is more in accord with their presence in the overall New Mexico electorate represents a critical objective for Senator Barack Obama’s efforts to win New Mexico in November. Since New Mexico represents an important swing state and holds a significant place in the electoral calculus that will, ultimately, decide a winner in the coming election, the Obama Campaign must devise an effective voter outreach and get out the vote effort amongst New Mexico’s Hispanic voters in order to win on Election Day. Such a strategy will be devised herein.

Hispanics Trending towards Democrats:

Since 2004, Hispanic voters have trended more toward the Democratic Party than at any point since sophisticated data on party allegiance amongst Hispanics has been taken. In a poll conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center in October and November of 2007, 57% of Hispanics now identify themselves as Democrats, whereas only 23% of them identify as Republican. This 34% gap is the largest ever noted by the Pew Hispanic Center and 13 points larger than the gap measured by the group in July 2006. Given the shifting of Hispanic voters into the Democratic Camp, ensuring that as many eligible Hispanic voters as possible actually vote on Election Day should become a critical strategic objective in the party’s plans for success in November.

Hispanic Voters in New Mexico:

Election ’04:

The growing preference of Hispanics for the Democratic Party holds particular significance in New Mexico. In 2004, President Bush defeated John Kerry by 1% in a razor tight electoral contest. Notable was the fact that Hispanic voters substantially undervoted, that is, voted at levels that were both far under the level of total eligible voters, as well as below the level of the state’s general electorate.

While data is not available on state-level turnout rates amongst Hispanic voters, information collected at the national level indicates that New Mexico Hispanics did not vote with equally high efficacy as the general public. For example, while Hispanics accounted for 8.2% of the total U.S. electorate in 2004, they only made up 6.0% of all votes that were actually cast. Moreover, at the national level, only 47% of eligible Hispanic voters cast their votes in Election 2004, compared with a 63.8% rate amongst the general electorate. If these two trends noted at the national level bare even the slightest resemblance to what occurred amongst New Mexican Hispanics, then it can be said that potential Hispanic voters did not have nearly as significant an impact on the outcome of the election as they could have.

An Opening for Obama Amongst New Mexico’s Hispanic Voters:

Given recent trends in party allegiance amongst Hispanic voters nationally and New Mexico’s result in the 2004 presidential election, Barack Obama should see courting New Mexico’s Hispanic voters as critical to his chances of winning the state and securing the presidency. In New Mexico, the share of Hispanic voters (that is, those voters who actually cast their vote) in the state’s electorate is greater than President Bush’s margin of victory over John Kerry in 2004 (New Mexico, according to Pew, is one of only seven states in which this is the case. The others are Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Colorado, and Florida). That means that even a small increase in the percentage of New Mexico Hispanics who cast their votes for the Democratic candidate would have turned New Mexico for Kerry in 2004 and would do the same for Senator Obama this November.

This is especially true when one keeps in mind that, currently, Hispanic voters are more closely aligned to the Democratic Party than at any point in recent memory. Exit polls in 2004 indicated that President Bush won 44% of New Mexico’s Hispanics in 2004. If one takes into account the Pew Center data collected in October and November of 2007, which suggests that 57% of eligible Hispanic voters align with the Democratic Party, while only 23% align with Republicans, then it becomes clear that even a slight increase in Hispanic efficacy would turn New Mexico to the Democrats this November.

Crunching the Numbers of an Obama Victory:

If the percentage share of Hispanics in New Mexico’s total electorate is applied to the total number of voters who cast their ballots in the 2004 presidential election, then 302,522 Hispanic New Mexicans were eligible to vote in New Mexico in 2004.[1] However, if the 47% efficacy rate amongst Hispanic voters charted at the national level for the 2004 election is applied to New Mexico, then only 142,185 voters, or 17% of the total number of voters who voted, were Hispanic. If, as exit polls indicated, 44% of New Mexico’s Hispanic voters supported Bush in 2004, then roughly 79,624, or 56% of, Hispanic voters cast their ballot for John Kerry in that same year. This means that, of New Mexico’s projected 302,522 eligible Hispanic voters in 2004, only 26% of them voted for John Kerry.

Expanding exit poll projections suggesting that 56% of New Mexico’s voting Hispanics supported John Kerry in 2004 indicates that, had Hispanic voters voted at the overall 2004 national efficacy rate of 63% (that is, among voters of all races in 2004 across the U.S.), then John Kerry would have carried New Mexico by 21,118 votes. Additionally, and perhaps more powerfully, since Bush defeated Kerry by only 5,988 votes in 2004, it would have taken only a 3.53% increase in the efficacy rate of New Mexico’s Hispanics to turn the state for Kerry in 2004. Such a small increase would have made an impact on the election not only in New Mexico, but also nationally, as it would have brought Kerry closer to obtaining the electoral votes necessary to defeat Bush and win the presidency

New Mexico’s Hispanic Dems in Election ’08:

These findings also have critical implications for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama’s efforts to win New Mexico in 2008. However, at the outset, it must be stated that at least two critical factors regarding New Mexico’s Hispanic electorate have changed since the election in 2004 that the Obama Campaign needs to address in order to be successful.

First, the percentage of Hispanics in the state’s overall electorate has dipped from roughly 40% just before the election in 2004 to 37.1% as of late 2006.[2] While this does not represent a marked reduction, the 3% dip does constitute a 7.5% change, which is significant. Secondly, as mentioned earlier, the tendency of Hispanics to identify themselves with the Democratic Party is at its highest point in recent memory. According to a poll conducted by the Pew Center in October and November of 2007, 57% of Hispanics countrywide consider themselves Democrats, whereas only 23% of Hispanic Americans refer to themselves as Republicans. While similar data does not exist at the state level, it can be said with some certainty that the percentage of New Mexico’s Hispanic electorate that considers itself Democratic has increased notably since the presidential election of 2004.

This, of course, bodes well for Senator Obama’s chances to carry the state in November, but it is no guarantee. Indeed, if anything, the current political trending of Hispanics nation-wide evidences the absolute necessity of the Obama Campaign to launch aggressive voter outreach efforts among Hispanics in swing states like New Mexico, which will make the difference between winning and losing come November.

In a future posting, I will outline the parameters of what such a voter outreach effort should entail. In the meantime, enjoy the remainder of your holiday weekend, and stay safe and happy as you move towards summer. Thanks for reading!

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[1] According to a survey conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center in 2004, Hispanics constituted 40% of New Mexico’s overall electorate.

[2] Paul Taylor and Richard Fry. Hispanics and the 2008 Election: A Swing Vote? Washington, DC: Pew Hispanic Center, December 2007.