Friday, May 16, 2008

Date for Zimbabwean presidential run-off set; why Tsvangirai must (and will) stand

Zimbabwe's presidential run-off has been set for Friday, 27 June. Movement For Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who scored the most votes in the first round of polling and nearly won a victory outright, has said, after much foot-dragging, the he will contest the election. For his embattled country, which has suffered under the incompetent, oft megalomaniacal leadership of strongman Robert Mugabe, Tsvangirai's decision is undoubtedly the right one.

Corruption, Inflation, and Violence- Mugabe's Shattered Legacy:
In 1980, Zimbabwe became one of the final African countries to break the shackles of colonial domination and win its independence as a sovereign state. A passionate, charismatic maverick by the name of Robert Mugabe led this charge to liberation, and the country's populous responded by making him their overwhelming pick to serve as Zimbabwe's first head of state.

However, in the nearly thirty years during which Mugabe has been in control, Zimbabwe, once a paragon of progressivism and hope in a gloomy African sociopolitical scene, has scene its status decline to the extent that it now represents one of the most afflicted, desperate countries on the African continent and in the world.

During the early part of his tenure, Mugabe stressed things like education and a workable approach to redistributing the country's vast farmlands, which were disproportionately possessed by wealthy, white agribusinessmen, who'd come to control most of Zimbabwe's wealth under imperialism. However, as the years went by, Mugabe became more concerned with his own legacy and retention of power than advancing the country whose independence he'd worked so hard and effectively to create in the first place.

Makoni the Trailblazer:
The offshoot of Mugabe's effort to consolidate power was a muted national political dialogue, which left reasonable critics within the opposition often shunned from political discourse, or removed from the scene altogether in the form of mysterious deaths and outright murder. Indeed, until very recently, when Mugabe's former Finance Minister and Zanu-PF party mate, Simba Makoni, chose to challenge the untouchable strongman, the little opposition that did exist to the president's suffocating hold on Zimbabwean political power received only scant support from voters, frightened that any form of dissent would lead to their firing, persecution, or worse.

However, when Makoni entered the fray, it sent a powerful message that things had gotten so bad in Zimbabwe, even Mugabe's former political henchmen had grown leery. And, with inflation hovering near 100,000% and climbing, who could blame them? Interestingly, it was not Makoni himself who capitalized on the newly emboldened Zimbabwean electorate, as he failed to secure even 10% of the vote in the first round of presidential elections. It was, rather, the MDC's Tsvangirai who routed the competition and, according to official counts, which were surely rigged to prevent an outright victory by the MDC leader, registered just under 50% of votes cast.

Tsvangirai to Stand:
Now, after at first suggesting he'd boycott a run-off contest against Mugabe, Tsvangirai says he will stand to become only the country's second president since winning independence. The challenges he faces in taking down the Mugabe warmachine (and, since losing his stranglehold on voters' habits at the polls, his operation truly has become more an arbiter of violent than political operations) are immense. It is not so much the preference of voters Tsvangirai must win over in order to prevail but rather the ability to avoid the downside of large-scale, systemic vote-rigging (a downside, which, to be sure, has no 'up'), as well as serious threats to his personal security and that of his supporters and family. There's simply no reason to believe or expect that Mugabe won't do everything in his power to retain control. However, thankfully, Tsvangirai has come to understand that, without a bold play for political control in his country, Zimbabwe will slip further and further into the misery and desolation currently making life there so bad.

Hopefully, his bold efforts will be rewarded with victory and a brighter day for the citizens of Zimbabwe.




No comments: