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Betancourt Returns
After more than six years of captivity by the leftist rebel group FARC, former Colombian presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt has been rescued by Colombian authorities. Along with fourteen others, including three American defense contractors, Betancourt was released and is in reportedly "very poor health." Her release was a cardinal point of French foreign policy.
While it may sound in bad taste, this is a major blow to FARC and its attempts to get their jailed guerillas released. In order to gain leverage in negotiations, FARC has used Betancourt as a bargaining chip. However, now, not only have they lost that leverage, this allows Colombian President Alvaro Uribe to continue his military offensive against the group. Betancourt's captivity had put pressure on Mr. Uribe to negotiate with FARC, something he has resisted in the past.
This setback adds to the many FARC has faced recently. Among other things, FARC has lost its longtime leader, Manuel Marulanda, along with two other members of its seven man ruling body. That said, the group still holds more than forty hostages and continues to ravage the country.
AU Apathy
We all know of the death and destruction spread by the militias supporting Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF. Mr. Mugabe has been defiant of international calls for him to either hold free and fair elections, form a coalition government with his opponet Morgan Tsvangirai, or just step down. Today, leaders of Africa met for an AU summit, giving them a chance to chastise Mr. Mugabe and dragoon him into doing one of the aforementioned actions. With this opportunity, these prominent African leaders...
BLEW IT! Yes, in the first window to pressure Mugabe, there he was, sitting in the chair for Zimbabwe. Despite the rise of the AU as a legitimate union of a continent rising out of the muddle of its past, it has shown ineffectiveness when dealing with Zimbabwe, feebly bowing to Robert Mugabe. In the resolution that was approved by the AU, it weakly called for a unity government, failed to call the elections illegitimate, and lionized the "efforts" of Thabo Mbeki to break a deal. However, Mr. Mbeki's policy of "quiet diplomacy" has been largely fruitless and he has shown a stubborn relectance to issue even the mildest criticism to his neighbor, Mr. Mugabe.
The future of Zimbabwe is continuing to worsen. The rightful winner of the first round, Mr. Tsvangirai, is now hiding at the Dutch Embassy, his life in danger. He is, rightfully, denying any attempt at a unity government until he is declared the winner of the presidential campaign. As shown by the AU, international leaders are unable or unwilling to intervene or even condemn the actions of Mugabe. So now, Zimbabwe's hopes rest on the actions of the west. However, any action would definitely require UN approval, and China and Russia are going to veto any sanctions. Also, military intervention, even with UN approval, is very unpopular. The outcome of any military action could be devastating for Zimbabwe. Until action is taken, the people of Zimbabwe will continue to languish under hyperinflation and Mugabe's oppressive regime. Even more tragically, anyone who attempts to flee the situation faces vehement xenophobia in their new location, especially in South Africa.
Veepstakes
If past trends hold true in this election, Barack Obama will choose his running mate in the very near future. In 2004, John Kerry chose John Edwards on July 6th. In 1992, Bill Clinton chose his ultimately more successful running mate, Al Gore, on July 9th. So, the question is, who will be Obama's number two. I've narrowed my guesses down to five people: Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Joe Biden, retired General Wesley Clark, former Senaor Sam Nunn, and, my longshot pick, former House Majority and Minority leader Dick Gephart.
Bill Richardson
A perfect candidate on paper. He is a latino, he has loads of foreign policy experience (he has negotiated with numerous world leaders and dictators), he was an Ambassador to the UN, he was Secretary of Energy under Bill Clinton, he is a popular governor of a swing state, and he is a pro-gun, pro-penalty western moderate. However, there are some downsides. His tenure as Secretary of Energy was plagued by the Wen Ho Lee scandal which might take away some of his credibility on energy and national security issues. His support of medical marijuana might hurt the Obama campaign among moderates. Finally, two minorities on the same ticket may cause even more trouble with working class whites.
Joe Biden
Mr. Biden's VP prospects have been somewhat dismissed by the media while he could be a superb number two. He is a Catholic, which is a demographic that Obama has had trouble with in the past. His longtime membership with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee would help Obama with his biggest problem, his lack of experience. Biden took a prominent role in the Balkans conflict and influenced then President Bill Clinton's policy toward the region. However, he adamantly supported Bush's policy with regards to Afghanistan and Iraq, although he repeatedly called for more troops in Afghanistan. Fortunately, he has reversed his position on Iraq and now advocates a draw down of US troops. Another problem for the Senator is his geographic location. Despite Delaware's longstanding affinity for conservatism, I doubt he will help expand the electoral map.
Wesley Clark
There is no doubt what General Clark will bring to the ticket. He has actually commanded troops, going over John McCain's head. He was a supporter of Hillary Clinton and might help in party unity, bring over some of Mrs. Clinton's former supporters who are hesitant to support the "in-experienced" Obama. One downside of his candidacy are his remarks regarding the military experience and qualification of John McCain which received criticism from both McCain and Obama.
Sam Nunn
One of my favorites, Sam Nunn has many years of experience. He served in the Senate for 25 years and as Chairman of the Armed Services Committee for eight years. He is a moderate Democrat who has broken from his party on social and economic issues. This could help Obama reach out to disaffected Republicans and Reagan Democrats. Finally, he is from Georgia, a state that has been put in play by Barack Obama. However, his moderate to conservative positions could put him and Obama at odds with the Democratic party base.
Dick Gephart
The former majority leader of the House, Mr. Gephart is very popular with the labor movement. This characteristic could help with Reagan Democrat, union members who have shown reluctance to support his candidacy. However, he isn't a very popular choice for VP, and, as I said before, he isn't a very likely choice.
I would like to respond to a comment on my last post by "lp." I agree with your thoughts, this PUMA phenomenon isn't very significance and will lose much of its prevalence in the coming weeks as they go through the five stages of grief and inevitably reach acceptance. I also agree with your belief that it is a media created event. It is just another example of the media seeing a "shiny object" and making a big deal out of it.
Thanks for your comment, please keep reading.
Mugabe and His "Election": End to the Zimbabwean Campaign, Beginning of the International Campaign
Today, according to my intense calculations, Robert Mugabe will win the "election" in Zimbabwe. This is a hollow victory, as very few individuals are planning to recognize the results of the so-called election. Mugabe has led a campaign of violence that has forced opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai to not only withdraw from the race but seek safety from the Zanu-PF militias that are beating, torturing, and killing innocent MDC supporters throughout Zimbabwe.
The run-off held today was described best by Mr. Tsvangirai as Mugabe "desperate for the illusion of legitimacy." Zanu-PF militias rounded up Zimbabweans who would otherwise have boycotted the election, and forced them to vote. And, in the voting booths, only those prepared to face violence voted for Mr. Tsvangirai, because they knew anyone who voted for him would be tracked don and harmed. Plus, in what could be a conspiracy meant to drive me crazy, the American media barely even mentions it. MSNBC.com, a website that I use regularly, has only a small link on its front page, buried underneath pictures of the Obama/Clinton unity rally. On CNN.com, even in the international version, a small link reads: "Mugabe rival: Opposition rival intimidated." They would've put this link on their US front page, but too much space was taken up by these three particularly important stories- "3 teachers accused of sex with students," "Colorado stamp has Wyoming mountain," and "Review: Wall-E is a classic." Now, while I know the Zimbabwean humanitarian crisis doesn't have sex, mountains, or funny robots (the big three), I think CNN could've made some space.
Now, the question is what happens next? Will the UN impose sanctions against Zimbabwe's already broken economy? Will the AU attempt to pressure Mugabe to change his ways? Who knows, all we can do is wait.
PUMAs, Not Just Shoes
There has long been concern that the Democratic Party will not unite after the long, hard fought primary fray. Today, in an attempt to put their differences behind them, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appeared in an event in Unity, NH. The event was so steeped in symbolism, it was less of a campaign stop and more of a John Steinbeck novel. However, some are not impressed.
An organization, PUMA (Party Unity My Ass), has emerged as a group of Hillary Clinton supporters stubbornly refusing to vote for the man she lost to, Barack Obama. Most likely, these supporters will vote for the Republican presumptive nominee John McCain, however, some will vote for Ralph Nader, Bob Barr, or other third party candidates. Not only are these people just ignorant, but they are making a charade of our democracy. The only thing worse than someone not voting is someone voting out of protest or poor information. I can only imagine what the oppressed people in Zimbabwe who yearn for a functioning democracy would have to say to these people.
Another shocking thing about this group and people like them is the ignorance. A majority of the PUMAs are women, who are vexed over the purported "sexism" that led to the debasement of Hillary Clinton and her campaign. And yet, they are voting for John McCain, a man with a 1% rating from NARAL, indicating a strong anti-abortion stance. If, and this is a big if, John McCain gets elected and Roe v. Wade gets overturned, what will happen to all the unplanned babies that will be born to unprepared and unready parents just because the mom didn't trust Obama and his "lack" of experience. This election is about more than petty grudges, it's about the future. And, on the very, very, very off chance that a PUMA is reading this, shame on you.
Mac's Minatory Muddle
Republican presumptive nominee is digging himself into a rut. He is trying to attract both sides to his campaign, using nebulous language to describe his plans. Because of his problems with the conservative base, he is desperately trying to fashion a base out of mismatched sects of the political compass. However, as more comes out about his true beliefs, it will be fun (at least for this political junky), to watch these haphazardly formed alliances melt away like cardboard boxes in a thunderstorm.
All folksy similes aside, let's look at these various factions of the McCain coalition. McCain is trying to pick off indignant Hillary Clinton supporters (see above). He has been pursuing two groups: women and middle class whites. All Mr. McCain has said about Mrs. Clinton lately is how great she is, how hard she fought for women's rights, and how misogynistic the media is. However, I can only envisage how surprised these fairly liberal, mostly pro-choice women will react to, as I mentioned above, Mr. McCain's 1% rating from NARAL.
As for the working class, white, union members who so actively supported her campaign are now a little confused about Mr. Obama's patriotism and national defense credentials. Now, McCain is playing up his war record and his "chase bin Laden to the gates of hell," attitude and using the standard issue b.s. conservative attack against the liberal elite who want to spread gay marriage throughout the Middle East, after ceding half of America to al-Qaeda, of course. However, other than the fact that the complete second half of the last sentence is a completely false representation of the Democratic Party, McCain is attempting to run as one who cares about working class while supporting every free trade agreement ever, with or without environmental or labour regulations. This is quite the troubling fact for the union members fighting for their jobs. And, if he panders to them and adds environmental and labour regulations, he will lose the economically liberal wing of his party.
On a similar note, he is trying to walk the tight rope between the conservative free market solution and the liberal regulation solution. He is trying to please everyone all the time based on who he talking to at the particular time. However, he's not asking anyone or anything to sacrifice, and that's what it's going to take to reduce emissions. While profit motivates many people to innovate, there's only so far it can go. And, he advocates pouring oil on our oil addiction, which would help gas prices in only 5 years or so and destroy our environment starting the day we start to drill. It's just not happening.
It's also interesting to see him discuss the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Mr. McCain believes that the reason why we should stay in Iraq is because the Iraq government is capable of carrying out missions on its own and is starting to function as a government. Fine, Mr. McCain, then, let's start to pull out and give them the responsibility of taking care of their own country. Also, he says he's strong on national defense and on terror, however, the terrorists are in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Taleban is resurgent and, with our resources being poured into Iraq, we do not have the money, man power, or equipment to arm the Afghan military or take them on ourselves. Obama understands this, Mr. McCain does not.
Finally, the final point. This one is particularly hilarious to me: the myth of McCain being a "deficit hawk." While it is true McCain defies the common practice of earmarking and has led the crusade against pork barrel spending, this money which he is trying to keep the government from spending pales when compared to the money we've borrowed from China to pay for the war in Iraq. Plus, as opposed to taxing the people with the means to pay for it, Mr. McCain is cutting their taxes, driving our deficit to all time highs. Now, with the deficit and China rapidly growing and the only think shrinking is the value of our dollar, who's paying the price for "economic prosperity": the American middle class. While I am firmly against protectionism and the economic policies brought up by Alexander Hamilton in the early days of our country (the American School), they do bring up a point: deficits are fine only if you have the means to pay them off. If we want to go into the red, that's fine, but we better be able to pay it off through not only cutting government spending, but raising a few taxes too.
Anyway, all I'm saying is, as soon as all these facts come out, we're going to see the McCain campaign crash and burn and it may be anywhere from a 20 delegate win for Obama and a complete blowout, up to a 100+ delegate wash, very 1964-esque.
