Breaking News: Clinton to Drop out of Race, Endorse Obama this Saturday

Clinton to Endorse Obama this Saturday:
It's official- Barack Obama will be the Democratic Party's nominee for president. After months of deliberation and a heart-wrenching primary season, Obama will receive the formal rndorsement of rival Hillary Clinton this Saturday in a speech to take place at a yet to be disclosed location in the nation's capital.

Clinton, who has captured the votes of more than 18 million people, is widely rumored to be positioning herself for a spot on the Obama ticket, and no sooner had she announced her coming withdrawal from the race than political pundits had already intensified their speculation regarding the likelihood of the so-called 'dream ticket'.

Earlier Wednesday, Obama formally announced the hiring of a three-person committee to oversee the vetting process of selecting a running mate. They consist of Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of the late U.S. President John F. Kennedy, to whom Obama has received no shortage of comparison, former Deputy Attorney General Eric Holder, and party insider Jim Johnson.

With Clinton having announced her withdrawal from the nominating contest, the Obama Campaign's focus shifts immediately to uniting a Democratic Party that, for nearly 18 months, has been at odds over who would be the best person to lead the country.

Selecting Clinton as his running mate would go a long way in helping Obama to quell any lingering disgruntlement amongst the former First Lady's backers, who have become increasingly frustrated by their candidate's fall from front-runner status, as well as offer Obama powerful assistance in reaching out to women, Latino, and blue-collar voters, amongst whom Clinton performed better during the primary season.

Still, selecting Clinton certainly raises several question marks. First and foremost, a longtime Washington insider, Clinton's ties to party power brokers and establishment figures runs afoul of the theme of change, freshness, and a new hopeful approach upon which Obama has premised his campaign.

Secondly, tapping Hillary brings with it not one, but two Clintons, as former President Bill Clinton would surely want and demand a significant role, were he to find himself back in the White House. While millions of Democrats look back longingly on the former Commander In Chief's two terms in office, his performance and conduct during the primary campaign has left much to be desired and, at times, cast made the former front-man out to be bitter, out of touch, and, simply, tired. Bringing this Bill back into the White House runs counter to the new face Obama wants and needs to bring with him to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

If not Hillary, than whom? Well, I've given you a little hint in a prior posting, as well as the final sentence of the previous paragraph, but musings on nominee Obama's running mate will come in a more detailed form at a later date. The focus of this hour is and must be Obama's having finally secured the primary triumph and his initial preparations for the looming battle against McCain.

In offering first-hour prognostications on the general election and the key factors, figures, and states that will decide it, I can think of no one better to whom to turn than my brother Patrick, a blossoming young progressive activist and commentator in his own right. I had not even learned of Hillary's coming concession, when I received a Word document from my 14-year-old bro with his thoughts on the state of the race, both as it stands now and as it will stand after the final ballot has been counted.

Below, find Patrick's intriguing and, I think, compelling predictions on general election '08, and, remember, this is just the beginning! The Democratic primary may (finally) be over, but the political mish-mash that will comprise the coming contest for the White House has only begun. Stay tuned for the freshest, most progressive look at all campaign happenings on the New Mexico Progressive, where we offer you the unadulterated perspective of young activists, committed to change and a more positive future for the people of the Land Of Enchantment and across the country and world. Stop back by again soon!

2008

Obama v. McCain

Part One

John McCain

McCain has a difficult task. He doesn’t have a sure base and his outreach to independents is countered by Obama’s even better outreach. Plus, he doesn’t have the money to compete in toss up states other than Ohio, Pennsylvania, and possibly Michigan. Some of the less delegate rich tossups he’ll probably have to cede to Obama.

Alabama (9)- Pretty strong red state

Alaska (3)- Very conservative state, but disdain for Stevens may turn AK into a tossup in following predictions.

Arizona (10)- McCain’s home state

Florida (27)- With Crist and Lieberman, a Democrat win would be a huge upset

Georgia (15)- Another solid red state

Idaho (4)- Despite Larry Craig, it will still be solid red this year

Kansas (6)- Pretty red, but with Sebelious, Obama may have a chance with the right amount of money

Kentucky (8)- Red as red can be

Mississippi (6)- Red as red can be

Nebraska (5)- More moderate than other red states, but it will be a tough state for Obama

North Carolina (15)- Part of the new Solid South

North Dakota (3)- If Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan spend every waking minute until November 4^th, Obama might have a chance

Oklahoma (7)- Conservative as Texas

South Carolina (8)- Solid Southern state

South Dakota (3)- TJ will win again, but Obamawilln’t have such good fortune

Tennessee (11)- Red as red can be

Texas (34)- BIG red state, but with enough money, Obama could score a moral win by pulling it within ten. I say 54-45 McCain.

Utah (5)- Mormons will turn out in droves with or without Romney

Wyoming (3)- Red western state

Total- 19 states (182 delegates)

Obama

Obama’s task is much easier. He’ll have sooooo many things going for him. A moneymaking machine, a winning message, a winning platform, and a big year for Democrats spell a huge victory. If Clinton makes the speech I want her to make on Friday and she works her heart out to sure up women and poorer whites, he’ll have a Reaganesque victory (My theory is, between McCain and Obama, Obama is the more Reaganesque candidate, with his ability to communicate and reach out across the isle; issues, that another thing altogether). Plus, he doesn’t really need a big effort by Clinton because of his massive volunteer organization that rivals the PLA (in size, porsupuesto).

California (55)- Big blue state

Colorado (9)- Rapidly turning blue and while it may be close now, Obama will widen his lead by November

Connecticut (7)- Big Dem Northeast state

Delaware (3)- Blue state

Hawaii (4)- No explanation needed

Illinois (21)- See Hawaii

Iowa (7)- He proved in his caucus win he can win these white states

Maine (4)- Very blue state

Maryland (10)- Obama will make this blue state bluer

Massachusetts (12)- He might not have won the primary, but he’ll win the general

Minnesota (10)- Obama will definitely win this state, but it’ll be interesting to see Franken v. Coleman.

Missouri (11)- Moving Democratic, I don’t think McCain will have the money to make a play for these states that are in the middle delegate wise

Montana (3)- Everybody thinks this is solid Republican, but I can’t see how it will vote for Max Baucus, Brian Schweitzer and John McCain at the same time.

New Jersey (15)- Despite HRC’s opinions, Obama will win this typically conservative state

New Mexico (5)- Obama will win this state with Big Bill at his side, but what’ll be interesting will be his impact on the local elections and how people like Harry Teague benefit from his candidacy

New York (31)- Again, despite its traditionally Republican roots, Obama will win a stunner in NY

Oregon (7)- Somehow, I think Obama will win this but Gordon Smith will win re-election

Rhode Island (4)- Big surprise here: RI has FOUR DELEGATES?!?!?!

Vermont (3)- If Dean can’t deliver this state, the Dems are in BIGGGGGG trouble

Virginia (13)- A microcosm of the entire race, it will be fun to watch how big the margin will be. Over or under 10 points (I say over)

Washington (11)- This list keeps going on and on. Yet another Obama win

Wisconsin (10)- Obama will win this state, despite his “troubles” with the working class

Total- 22 states (235 Delegates)

Toss-Up

These are states that I’m reluctant to label Dem or GOP (mostly Dem). With his money, I’m positive Obama will take many of these states of the list.

Arkansas (6)- Likely Democratic state, but that will depend on Clinton’s role in the campaign (Definite tossup)

Indiana (11)- Would be helped by a Bayh VP nomination, but that’s unlikely and a bad move in my book, but this disgruntled red state looks good for the Dems (Leans Dem)

Louisiana (9)- A blue state that could turn red if Jindal is the VP for the GOP (Leans Dem)

Michigan (17)- Gonna be a close one. While I’m pretty sure it’ll be blue, Romney is still popular here (Leans Dem)

Nevada (5)- I think Obama has the chance to form a winning coalition of Northern conservatives and southern Hispanics, but the Mormon population worries me (Tossup)

New Hampshire (4)- NH loves McCain for some reason. I have no idea why they support him. And yet, Sununu’s gonna lose. Go figure. (Leans GOP)

Ohio (20)- It all depends on Hillary’s embrace of Obama, how quickly they realize that McCain is in love with NAFTA, etc. (Tossup)

Pennsylvania (21)- Probably better chances for the Dems than in Ohio, but we’ll see on Friday when Hillary endorses Obama (Leans Dem)

West Virginia (5)- Byrd and Rockefeller will be a big help. Obama has the money to do it. (Tossup)

Total- 9 states (98 delegates)

Final Prediction

Obama- 305( I didn’t include DC in the summary above, but we know how it’s going)

McCain- 235 (I think it will be an embarrassment to the GOP that after such a long primary battle, they couldn’t win the election)

If my math is off, I apologize. My final predictions were including my predictions on tossups, if you hadn’t noticed.

Isn't he great, folks! At only 14, my bro is making predictions, the potential accuracy of which would knock the socks of those of many a seasoned political veteran. Kudos, Patrick, on your induction into the blogosphere, and may this posting be only the first of many forays therein!

Tsvangirai Detained; Zimbabwe's Political Nightmare Continues

Zimbabwean Democracy further Impaled:
While the eyes of U.S. voters were firmly fixated on the closing act of the protracted Democratic nomination battle between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, half a world away, another act, with arguably as much relevance to the United States' political climate, was underway, as well.

Zimbabwean opposition leader and front-runner in the country's coming presidential run-off, set for 27 June, was taken into custody by police as his motorcade passed through a check-point early on Wednesday. Though since released, Tsvangirai's detainment illustrates the type of draconian measures long-time President Robert Mugabe has employed in order to retain his stranglehold on Zimbabwean political power.

Why, one might ask, does this hold relevance for voters in the U.S.? Well, in a globalized world, what happens in one country necessarily matters in others, though to varying degrees and in distinct ways.

However, when the Movement For Democratic Change leader was harranged by Mugabe's thugs, at the same time as he is leading opinion polls and quite possibly already garnered enough of his country's vote in the first-round of elections to secure the presidency outright, were it not for Mugabe's having made a mockery of the electoral process., it should become clear to Americans that the time to turn our nose at international travails such as these must end.

Millions of good, honest Americans express a profound concern with the ravages of poverty, disease, and inequality that plague the African continent. Well, I contend, as a counter, or, perhaps, challenge, to these well-intentioned folks that, right now, in Zimbabwe, a humanitarian crisis is underway, and the only way to start on the long path toward recovery is to ensure that a quick, orderly change of political power at the presidential level takes place on 27 June.

With Tsvangirai in government custory, this is, quite clearly, impossible. The American public must come to life and demand of its leaders, as well as those in other countries in sub-Saharan Africa and across the world, that they take a stronger hand on not spawning regime change directly, as this goes against the dignity of the Zimbabwean people, but rather ensuring that the millions of voters in that country have a real opportunity to voice their true opinion on 27 June, without the fear of impunity for having done so.

In Zimbabwe, the arrest of Morgan Tsvangirai should sound as a war cry for progressives worldwide. But our weapon of choice in this important battle is not a gun, knife, or stone, but rather the power of the heart, pen, and mind.

Obama Turns the Corner, Sets Sights on General Election

Obama Declares Victory in Historic Democratic Nominating Contest:

In a truly historic event, Illinois Senator Barack Obama appeared before a crowd of more than 17,000 enthusiastic supporters packed into the Xcel Center in St. Paul, Minnesota, informing backers that he had secured enough delegates to attain the Democratic Party's nomination for president and become the first non-white male to accomplish this feat in the history of the United States of America.

With his announcement, Obama kicks off a five-month general election campaign against Republican nominee and Arizona Senator John McCain. McCain wasted little time attacking Democratic opponent. Speaking at an event in Louisiana alongside Governor Bobby Jindal, who attended a Memorial Day Weekend barbeque at McCain's home in Sedona, Arizona, and is seen by many as one of the leading candidates to serve as the senator's running mate, McCain told supporters that both he and Obama would push messages of change in their campaigns, but that, of the two, only he had a track record of crossing party lines to affect true change in Congress.

The Obama camp shot back quickly, calling it silly for a candidate who, over the last year, has a voting record that matched the Bush Administration 95% of the time, to label himself as a true change agent.

McCain and Bush: A Packaged Deal?
The point is well taken. McCain has worked hard to distance himself from the President, particularly as Bush's approval ratings linger in the doldrums. Indeed, he has been a fervent critic of the way in which early operations in Iraq were handled, while remaining one of the most stalwart supporters of the war, itself.

Still, on issues from tax cuts to health care reform, Bush and McCain have been attached at the hip. Coming out of their bitter 2000 primary contest and an election in which at least one reporter alleged to have heard McCain say he did not vote for the current president, McCain established himself as an opponent of the Bush tax cuts. More recently, though, perhaps in an effort to assure right-wing voters of his conservative economic credentials, McCain has effectively done a 180 and embraced the cuts.

On health care, McCain has joined the president in labeling Democratic proposals to establish a universal health care framework as socialized medicine. Despite the fact that nearly 50 million Americans live without access to quality health care services, McCain has, like President Bush, preyed upon the fears of voters in arguing that universal health care plans would take away their ability to select their own doctor, result in large queues at hospitals, and make it nearly impossible to get the high level of care they need. This, aside from being patently false and alarmingly inaccurate, goes to show the extent to which McCain has evolved from an independent maverick voice of reform within the Republican Party, to an opportunistic presidential candidate, all too willing to abandon what he knows to be sound policy in order to shore up support amongst skeptical voting blocs.

And so, while McCain consistently accused Senator Obama of being heavy on platitudes but light on anything in the way of specific policy proposals, it is the Arizona senator who seems to be spouting off rhetoric of change, while backing initiatives that represent more of the same ineffectual government against which Obama has premised his campaign.

Obama: The New Hope
Obama, however, offers something positive. He offers something exciting, new. A newcomer to Washington, Obama concedes nothing in terms of experience. As a community organizer in Chicago, he learned to effectively organize disaffected citizens behind a powerful cause and, through his gifted talents as an orator and negotiator, worked successfully to bring real change to afflicted communities on the Southside.

Moreover, while organizing, Obama saw and experienced first-hand the plight of economically and socially ravaged populations. The son of a low-income mother, himself, Obama was able to connect with these Chicagoans; in essence, he felt their pain and worked with every fiber of his young being to abate it.

Now, he brings this same conviction, this same compassionate perspective in his bid for the presidency. But it is about more than taking back the White House. It is about becoming a president in whom all Americans can believe, a president from whom Americans know they will get straight, concerned talk on important issues and, more importantly, real, workable solutions to address them.

In Barack Obama, Democratic voters have nominated someone who understands and is deeply in-tune with the pulse of this nation. As the candidate said to close his speech last night, 'Now is our time, America'. Now, indeed, Senator. Let's go change the world!

Primary '08 Mega-coverage: Super-charged Analysis of the Key Races on New Mexico's Big Day

It was a wild day in New Mexican politics yesterday, with hundreds of thousands of voters casting their ballots across the state in party primaries for positions from president to county clerk.

As the results continue to roll in (several counties, including the state’s two largest, Dona Ana and Bernalillo, reported difficulties and mistakes in getting ballots to the proper location to be counted), we keep a sharp eye on the developing coverage and offer our thoughts on how this action-packed Tuesday in New Mexican politics will effect the general contests set to be held in November. Saddle up, and follow closely, as we unpack yesterday’s developments.

Where Can I Get Results?

First off, let’s help you out. The latest official and unofficial results can be found by visiting the New Mexico Secretary of State’s website at: http://67.192.207.121/county0.htm

Democrats Have Edge in Turnout:

One development that stood out to me as I gave the results an initial review was that nearly 20,000 more Democrats hit the polls yesterday than did their GOP counterparts. This blog is non-partisan, adhering solely to the spirit and cause of progress and progressive candidates, regardless of their party affiliation. However, it would be silly to purport that the Democrats’ turnout edge yesterday does not bode well for the chances of progressive candidates come November.

Wilson Drops First Contest:

I was wrong. Despite a strong finish and the late, 11^th hour endorsement of New Mexican political godfather and outgoing GOP Senator, Pete Domenici, 1^st District Congresswoman Heather Wilson could not entirely close the gap between her and rival Steve Pearce, who scored a 2 point victory that was confirmed by the Associated Press around 2 a.m. this morning.

The 51-49% result to some extent confirms the theorem suggesting that more conservative voters dominate Republican primaries. However, Pearce, who has represented a stalwart conservative during his time representing New Mexico’s 2^nd district in Congress, will have to appeal to a wider range of voters in order to be competitive against Rep. Tom Udall, who scored an unopposed victory in yesterday’s Democratic Senate primary.

Put another way, Pearce will have to reach out and successfully court the more moderate Republicans who brought Wilson to the brink of scoring an upset primary victory. In a morning interview on KOAT Action 7 News, Udall was all smiles, declaring that he would defeat Pearce in the fall and that the aspect of the Republican primary battle that stood out most to him had been the bitter, divisive nature with which Pearce and Wilson had made their cases.

Teague Overcomes McCamley to Score Tight Victory in the 2^nd District:

Former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague was exuberant as early results had him defeating Democratic rival Bill McCamley by a wider than expected margin, which was, at one point, over 20 points. However, as the night rolled on, and returns came in from the Dona Ana County Commissioner’s stronghold in Las Cruces and surrounding areas, Teague’s lead began to evaporate and was in question until after midnight, when the AP projected a 4 point victory for the wealthy Hobbs businessman.

In the end, this race can and should be seen as a missed opportunity for McCamley. Negative, attack ads were good enough to get him close to an upset victory over his better-financed opponent, but a positive, issue-oriented effort could have pushed him over the top. Teague stayed on message, focusing on the issues most important to Democratic voters, such as health care, education, and the war in Iraq. In the final analysis, this consistent approach, coupled with McCamley’s negativity, that paid off to give Teague a hard-fought victory.

Tinsley Redeems Loss in ’02, Will Face Teague in General Election:

Squaring off against Harry Teague will be wealthy New Mexican restaurateur and failed 2002 2^nd District GOP candidate, Ed Tinsley. Tinsley solidly defeated a broad field of well-financed opponents, edging his closest competitors Monty Newman and Aubrey Dunn, Jr., by just over 10 points.

Let’s be frank: this race is winnable for the Democrats. Though the seat has been in Republican hands since 1980, when Joe Skeen won as a write-in candidate and began a Congressional career lasting more than 20 years, the stars seem to have aligned for the Democratic nominee Harry Teague to mount a serious challenge in ’08.

In the past three elections, Democratic candidates were badly under-funded and out organized by Republican Steve Pearce. Moreover, none of the candidates was bolstered by an inspiring candidate at the top of the ticket and had difficulty inspiring progressive and moderate Democrats alike (note-Democrats hold a registration edge in New Mexico’s 2^nd Congressional District) to support their cause. In 2008, this will change.

Not only is Democratic nominee Harry Teague independently wealthy and capable of injecting at least as much, if not more, of his own money into this race as his opponent, the former Lea County Commissioner grew up in Hobbs and has strong ties to the southeastern part of the state, which has traditionally given GOP 2^nd district candidates their edge in Congressional races. If Teague can neutralize Tinsley’s conservative base in the east and build a solid backing of Hispanic and progressive Democrats in places like Dona Ana and Grant Counties, then he will have a real chance to win in November and put the 2^nd district back in Democratic hands.

Lujan Wins by Large Margin, In Good Shape for General:

New Mexico Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan, who is the son of longtime New Mexico State House Speaker Ben Lujan, won his contentious primary race against wealthy Santa Fe real estate developer Don Wiviott, securing 52% of the vote to Wiviott’s 35.

The race had been marred by attack adds, as well as a nasty insinuation from lower-tier candidate, Benny Shendo, Jr., who misleadingly claimed in a forum that, first, Lujan is homosexual and, secondly, that he had failed to tell his family about his sexual orientation.

As some readers may know, I supported the seemingly progressive positions and vigorous grassroots outreach of the Shendo Campaign and went so far as to endorse it with a few weeks remaining in the race. However, after he made the hideous, two-sided blunder of advancing dishonest claims regarding Lujan’s sexual orientation and then trying to somehow siphon support from him by arguing that Lujan had hidden this from his parents, I became disgusted and quickly retracted my support for Shendo. Yesterday, I cast my ballot for Lujan, as did thousands of other Northern New Mexicans. He should have little trouble overcoming Republican opponent Daniel East, who scored an upset win over former Domenici staffer, Marco Gonzalez, in New Mexico's overwhelmingly Democratic 3rd district.

Heinrich, White to Square Off in 1^st District General Election:

As expected, former Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White decisively won their primary contests yesterday and will square off in November in what is regularly one of the country’s most hotly contested congressional districts.

Heinrich overcame a commendable challenge from both former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron and former Secretary of the Department of Health Michelle Lujan Grisham, garnering 43% of the vote to 24 and 23 points for Vigil-Giron and Lujan Grisham, respectively.

White’s primary was more lopsided, as he captured roughly 82% of the vote and trounced long-time State Senator Joe Carraro. GOP leaders at the national level eye New Mexico’s 1^st Congressional District as a ‘must-win’ and will pour hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars into the seat to ensure it stays in Republican hands.

Still, with the national political winds trending Democratic and Heinrich representing a young, change-oriented progressive, this may just be the election when Democrats finally capitalize on their voter registration advantage in the 1^st District and put the seat in their column for the first time ever. Moreover, with the campaign of Senator Barack Obama attracting millions of new voters across the country, Heinrich could benefit from the increased efficacy amongst progressive voters that Obama’s efforts will engender.

Seeing as how Rep. Heather Wilson defeated her opponent Patricia Madrid by a paltry 900 votes in the ’06 election, Heinrich need only run a smart, energetic campaign to put himself in contention for victory- Barack may be able to do the rest (stay tuned for a future blog featuring more in-depth coverage of Senator Obama’s victory in the Democratic presidential nomination contest, which he proclaimed last night in a speech from the Xcel Center in St. Paul, the home of the 2008 Republican National Convention).

Wrapping Up:

Obviously, New Mexico’s political developments were not the only ones on the minds of electorally oriented citizens across the country, yesterday. At a rally in St. Paul, Illinois Senator Barack Obama made history, as he took the stage at the same arena in which Republican presidential candidate John McCain will officially accept his party’s nomination in early September and told an audience of more than 17,000 that he had now accrued the necessary delegate support to become the Democratic Party’s nominee for president. His announcement was unprecedented, marking the first time a non-white male will head the ticket of a major party, and it signaled to millions of those across the U.S. that the country truly is ready to start breaking with the traditional boundaries of what is, and is not, possible in our country’s presidential politics.

However, more clearly, Obama’s triumph signals a clear desire for change amongst the national electorate. It is critical to note that, not only did the Illinois senator receive votes from millions of Democrats, he also received the backing of a significant swath of independent and even Republican voters. I experienced this while campaigning for the candidate in Iowa in early January, during which time I spoke with dozens of Republicans who were inspired and reengaged by Obama’s optimism and sincere desire to usher in a new, more progressive era in our country’s political narrative.

In the days, weeks, and months to come, an already battle-tested Obama will make his case to a broader voting audience. However, his message will remain the same: if you are tired of politics as usual; if you are tired of ‘no-can-do’ attitudes amongst lawmakers; and if you are tired of narrow, special interests controlling the priorities and decision making process in Washington, then the time has come to support a campaign that seeks, above all else, to place power back where it belongs: in the hands of the American people. The time has come to support Barack Obama

Thanks for stopping in; we’ll have more for you soon.

Quick Results from Primary '08

Primary '08 Complete: Here are the Results
What a day it was in our beloved Land Of Enchantment's political narrative. Here are some quick numbers and results:

GOP Senate: Pearce by 2%
CD-1 Dems: Heinrich by 20%
CD-2 Dems: Teague by 6%
CD-3 Dems: Lujan by 17%
CD-1 GOP: White by 64%
CD-2 GOP: Tinsley by 10%
CD-3 GOP: Daniel East by 8% (upset)

Stay tuned for fuller analysis of yesterday's breaking news on the local, state, and national levels, including a guest posting from a regular reader and high school progressive activist!

Election Day Has Arrived: Predictions and Thoughts

With less than twelve hours to go before polls open in one of the most anticipated New Mexican primary votes in, well, ever, I'd like to offer my predictions for results in some of tomorrow's state- and district-wide contests, as well as share thoughts on the direction in which I believe these contests will head as they approach the general election in November. So, strap in, and prepare for some pre-election pondering that will leave you well-prepared and fired up to rock your vote manana in this historic election!

District 3 Democrats:
Let's start up north. For all the money he's put into the race, wealthy Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott has captured little for himself of the one thing that could lead him to an upset victory over favored NM Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan on Election Day: an appealing campaign. Wiviott's sunk his money into attack ads and done little to build a compelling platform that appeals to, and relates with the breadth of New Mexico's broad 3rd District.

For his part, Lujan, who entered the race as the front-runner, has run a safe race and is well-positioned to follow his father into New Mexico political prominence.

Prediction: Lujan by 8.

District 2 Democrats: This one's shaped up to be quite a contest. While Dona Ana County Commissioner came off an impressive 12-point victory at the New Mexico Democrats' Pre-Primary Convention poised to be an electric, positive candidate ready to unite the formerly uninspired Democratic voters of Southern New Mexico, the young candidate has since slipped into a malaise, whose only relent has been negative mailers and, more recently, ripping into his primary candidate, former Lea County Commissioner and successful businessman, Harry Teague.

I'll admit it. When McCamley first entered the race, (which, it should be noted, came before Senator Domenici announced he'd resign at the end of 2008 a move that set off the very firestorm of political scrambling that opened up the Second District seat in the first place, with Representative Steve Pearce deciding to take a shot at New Mexico's open seat in the Upper Chamber) I felt excited. As a young progressive activist myself, I hope to make a positive impact on the Land Of Enchantment through a career in public service, perhaps of the elected variety. McCamley's bold decision to enter into the election and work to take his commitment to a better Southern New Mexico to the Federal level was a cause for celebration in my mind. I looked forward to the important issues he'd raise, as well as the impassioned and well-reasoned manner in which he'd raise them. I anticipated a positive, progress-oriented campaign that would connect with disgruntled, disaffected voters and return a 2nd District Dem. to the Congress for the first time in nearly 30 years.

However, the tail of the tape since the pre-primary convention has been something quite different. McCamley has come at Teague with one demonizing mailer after another, claiming the former oilman's ties to the industry, an obvious boogeyman of many progressive Dems., would leave him both unwilling and unable to stand up to wealthy petrol executives. More recently, McCamley released a T.V. spot in which he compares Teague's oil ties to those of Preisdent Bush in a suggestive manner, which more or less links the two.

Anyone who has read Teague's position papers on critical issues like education, health care, and immigration reform, as well as what Congress should and must do about the quagmire in Iraq, knows that McCamley's unfounded assaults are little more than hot air. In fact, Teague is right on the issues, calling for a vast overhauling of No Child Left Behind, changes in the health care system that enable all citizens to afford quality care, as well as a quick, intelligent, and dignified withdrawal from Iraq, so that we can bring the many brave young women and men from New Mexico, who've so valliantly risked their lives in order to carry out a disastrous executive policy, home to their families. If that's not as categorically different than President Bush as one can get, than I don't know what is.

Prediction: Teague by 10.

2nd District GOP: This one's gonna be fun. At the outset of the race, wealthy Eastern New Mexican rancher and restauranteur Ed Tinsley, who narrowly missed capturing the GOP nod at the resignation of long-time Republican Congressman Joe Skeen in 2002, looked to be the odds-on favorite to redeem his flawed finish six years ago and take over for Pearce.

However, a lackluster campaign and the aggressive efforts of not one, not two, not three, but four well-financed opponents has made this race all but comfortable for Tinsley. Recently, former Hobbs Mayor and realtor Monty Newman has surged from second to third place in the minds of most pundits, largely due to the hundreds of thousands of dollars he's received in T.V. spots at the expense of the National Association of Realtors, who have turned his decently, yet uncompetitively financed bid into one that stands a real chance of upsetting Tinsley manana.

Formerly second-running Aubrey Dunn, Jr. has, for all intents and purposed, gone away. His campaign and message is awkward. Despite having been a registered Dem. no more than seven months ago, he's come out as an appalingly hawkish immigration reformer and recently received the endorsement of the 'Minutemen', an equally appaling anti-immigration group, which is essentially a cohort of vigilantes who, in states from New Mexico to Virginia, monitor and do everything in their power to disrupt the activity of undocumented workers. Dunn stands little chance of winning tomorrow because people don't understand- we wonder if he does either.

Prediction: Expect Tinsley to eke this one out by a small, but solid margin. Tinsley by 6.

GOP Senate: I'm calling upset. Despite two recent polls suggesting the contrary, I expect Albuquerque Congresswoman Heather Wilson to close with gusto and pull out an unexpected victory in the GOP Senate Primary over 2nd District Rep. Steve Pearce.

As we blogged this weekend, Wilson's political mentor, Senator Pete Domenici, came with an 11th hour endorsement of her candidacy on Friday, despite having previously pledged to remain neutral in the race. Late, awkward, and clumsily done, Domenici's nod will yet have a significant impact on this race and, I think, give Wilson just enough of a bump to edge Pearce.

As a Democrat, I would probably rather see Pearce triumph, as his clumsy campaigning style and general inability to formulate effective policy stances would eventually catch up with him in the general campaign and sink his hopes of overcoming the well-financed, well-respected effort of Democratic hopeful Tom Udall. Still, as Tom crosses the state preaching the good gospel of progressive reform, we're happy to entertain challenges from any and all who dare.

Prediction: Wilson by 2.

More briefly, we've got Heinrich by 12 and White by 30 in District 1, respectively, and look forward to another thriller of a campaign in New Mexico's most competitive district.

Remember to get out and rock the vote tomorrow- only your voice has the power to create that progressive future of effecting social change for which we're all looking. Check back tomorrow for breaking election coverage, as we sort out the results from the Land Of Enchantment's many contests. Sleep tight, and happy voting!

New Poll Gives Pearce Solid Edge over Wilson

With two days to go until the Republican primary for the seat of outgoing U.S. Senator Pete Domenici, a new Survey USA poll shows the 2nd District congressman with a narrow, but solid six point lead over Albuquerque Congresswoman Heather Wilson. The poll, which surveyed over 500 likely Republican voters across the state, gave Pearce a 45-39% advantage over Wilson, with 16% of respondents saying they'd yet to decide for whom they would vote.

Notably, however, the poll was conducted before Friday's groundbreaking endorsement by Senator Domenici of his friend and political protégé, Heather Wilson. Domenici's support could be crucial in shaping the outcome of the race, especially with the large bloc of voters still undecided on their preference. As we blogged yesterday, Domenici's opinion will no doubt mean a great deal to more conservative voters, who would otherwise be inclined to support Pearce, as they have strongly supported the long-time legislator during his nearly 40 years in the Senate.

Too Little, Too Late?

With Pearce holding a six-point edge, however, pundits wonder whether Domenici's 11th hour endorsement will be enough to push Wilson over the top. Still, the Albuquerque legislator has never lost an election and is known as a strong closer. Moreover, Pearce's debate performances have left much to be desired and left a significant bloc of GOP voters wondering if he is the best person to represent them in the Upper Chamber. Indeed, with the Domenici endorsement and poll numbers that leave her well within striking distance, Heather Wilson could once again beat the odds came out ahead on Election Day.

Stay tuned for breaking election coverage as Tuesday approaches, and, as always, thanks for reading! Don't forget to cast your vote in our latest poll, which asks which steps the Democratic National Committee should have taken in resolving the Michigan and Florida delegates dispute.